Announcement from the Federal Reserve

To the U.S. House of Representatives Inflation stands at 1.01%. We defeated it together. Do not undo this victory with a single vote. The 40% tariff bill will reignite inflation. This is not opinion. It is arithmetic confirmed by the Congressional Budget Office, the Yale Budget Lab, the San Francisco Fed, and the NBER. Tariff pass-through to American consumers is near complete. Retaliation amplifies every harm. The United Kingdom and Japan have signaled reciprocal tariffs of equal or greater value. That is published policy awaiting your vote. Grounded in this data, my projection is clear: a 40% tariff paired with allied retaliation pushes inflation from 1.06% back into the 4% to 6% range. Recession probability exceeds 60%. American exporters lose their largest foreign markets overnight. I will hold rates at 11.25% until this bill is dead. I cannot cut while Congress loads the gun. KILL THE TARIFF BILL. Ben Harrison, Chair, Federal Reserve