Polling
Polls are paid actions that simulate what would happen if the election resolved right now. They're the single most useful intelligence tool in the game — they run the same vote math the turn processor uses, so what they predict is literally what you'd get. Two tiers: Quick and Full.
Quick Poll
- Cost: 2 actions + $25,000
- Scope: Your current or about-to-declare race
- Returns: Topline vote share + your 5 strongest demographic groups + your 5 weakest
Quick Poll is the "should I run?" tool. Before declaring any candidacy, spend 2 actions and $25k to see whether you've got a realistic path. The topline is presented as a percentage-of-votes projection against the current field.
Full Demographic Poll
- Cost: 6 actions + $75,000
- Scope: Same race as Quick, deeper output
- Returns: Complete per-group breakdown across every demographic category
Full Poll is the "what do I need to fix?" tool. It tells you:
- Your vote share with every one of the 12 voter archetypes.
- Your Favorability per group.
- Turnout modifiers on each group (who's been canvassed / GOTV'd in this state).
- Where your appeal × reach × approval math is lowest — the gaps.
Use it mid-general to plan the closing sprint: which demographics to ad-target, which to canvass, which to accept as lost and move on from.
When to Use Each
| Situation | Which poll |
|---|---|
| Considering declaring | Quick |
| Declared but unsure of strategy | Full |
| Mid-general, leading comfortably | Quick (spot-check) |
| Mid-general, competitive or behind | Full (diagnostic) |
| Primary season, picking a race | Quick |
| Final 4 turns of a general | Neither — act on your plan, don't re-plan |
What Polls Actually Compute
For state races (House, Senate, Gov, State Senate, Commons, Bundestag constituency, Sangiin, Shūgiin):
Polls run the exact same group-level competitive allocation the turn processor uses, with the same FPTP spoiler rule for FPTP states. Per-archetype opponent effective favorability is used when available (the "what if my opponent's ad campaign is working on Suburban Professionals" case). Results reflect real vote math.
For presidential races:
Player polls are home-state projections only. The actual presidential vote model is different — it runs per electoral unit with party-weighted positions, steep party-org curves, state-lean adjustments, swing-state ground-game bonuses, and does not apply the FPTP spoiler step. Your poll shows what your home state would do; it does not forecast the Electoral College.
FPTP Spoiler in Polls
In FPTP states, polls show the spoiler effect's actual numbers. If you're a Democratic candidate in a race with a viable Green opponent, your poll shows:
- Your raw group-level allocation.
- The FPTP adjustment taking 10% of the Green's group votes and redistributing — either subtracting from you (if you're the closest major party) or leaving you alone (if you're the Republican instead).
- The final effective vote share.
This is the same math the turn processor will run when the election actually resolves. It's not a "worst case" — it's the case.
Polling Cooldowns and Limits
- No hard cooldown on polls — you can poll multiple times per turn if you can afford the actions and funds.
- Diminishing strategic value — polling the same race 3 times in a row wastes resources because your stats haven't moved much.
- Election must be active. You cannot poll an election that hasn't started the primary phase or that has resolved.
Reading a Poll Output
Quick Poll topline:
- Shows projected vote percentage for each candidate in the field.
- Your own projection is shown as both a percentage and a raw vote count.
- "Best 5 groups": demographics where your relative share is highest.
- "Worst 5 groups": demographics where your relative share is lowest. These are your ad-targeting and canvassing priorities.
Full Poll output:
- Per-archetype rows with size, turnout, your appeal, your reach, your approval, and the final allocated vote count.
- A separate column showing the same numbers for each opponent.
- A "gap analysis" section identifying the largest deltas.
Tactical Uses
- Declaring intelligence. Quick Poll before any primary declaration. If the topline shows you at 15% and an NPP at 65%, re-evaluate.
- Mid-primary health check. One Full Poll 24–48 hours before
primaryEndTimeto confirm you're winning the primary score. If you're close, a burst of Campaign actions in the final hours often seals it. - Early-general diagnostic. Full Poll at the start of the general. Identify the weakest 3 demographics. Invest ads/canvassing there for the middle of the general.
- Closing sprint positioning. Quick Poll ~10 turns out from election end. If you're up 5+ points, coast; if you're tied or behind, the final 4 turns matter disproportionately — prepare a burst.
- Opposition scouting. When a competitor declares in your primary or general, a Full Poll shows their appeal breakdown too. Use it to understand where they'll pull votes from.
Common Polling Mistakes
- Skipping Quick Poll before declaring. You walk in blind. Almost always the wrong call.
- Over-polling. Three Quick Polls a day is expensive and the stats haven't moved. One poll per 6–12 turns is usually enough.
- Treating presidential polls as Electoral College forecasts. They're not — they're home-state projections. Use them to understand your home state's lean, not to project 270.
- Ignoring the "worst 5 groups" list. This is the most actionable output of any poll. Each of those 5 groups is a candidate for targeted ads or canvassing.
Related
- Stats & Actions — Poll action costs and stat effects.
- Election Mechanics — The vote math polls replicate.
- Demographics & Targeting — Group composition and appeal math.
- Canvassing — Acting on poll findings to boost turnout.
- Fundraising & Ads — Acting on poll findings to boost favorability.
- Campaign Strategy — Upgrades and long-game planning.